Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 500 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD COLORADO TO 80 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LAMAR COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 917...WW 918...
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED STORMS/SMALL SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY NNE ALONG SSW-NNE CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE NM INTO
SE CO. STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LVL SHEAR AND RECOVERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMTH/MOISTURE NWWD INTO SE CO/FAR WRN KS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD DMG WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 21050.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 919 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 120400Z - 121100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20SSW SPD/SPRINGFIELD CO/ - 80NNE LAA/LAMAR CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /43ESE TBE - 25SW GLD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21050.
LAT...LON 37000366 39130304 39130118 37000184
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 919 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 919
VALID 120735Z - 120840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LHX
TO 20 ESE LAA TO 25 ENE SPD TO 15 WNW EHA.
..EDWARDS..10/12/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 919
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-061-071-099-120840-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT KIOWA
LAS ANIMAS PROWERS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 919
VALID 120650Z - 120740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE GLD TO
50 S GLD TO 35 ENE LAA TO 15 W EHA.
..EDWARDS..10/12/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 919
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-061-071-099-120740-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS
$$
KSC071-109-199-120740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREELEY LOGAN WALLACE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 919
VALID 120545Z - 120640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..10/12/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 919
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-061-071-099-120640-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS
$$
KSC071-109-199-203-120640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREELEY LOGAN WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
