MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO/SWRN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 919...
   
   VALID 120805Z - 120930Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 919
   CONTINUES.
   
   KS AND PORTIONS EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO ALREADY HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
   WW LOCALLY...AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
   REGION.  REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z
   EXPIRATION.
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN NM AND MOVING INTO SERN CO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE ADVECTION OF FAVORABLY
   MOIST AIR MASS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST SBCINH INCREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH NWD EXTENT AWAY FROM
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF RTN MESA...EXCEEDING 100 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF
   E-CENTRAL/SERN CO AND SWRN KS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  THIS WILL
   GREATLY MITIGATE CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT.  ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA MAY
   SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT CAN
   MOVE OVER THIS REGION...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED 45-55 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  HOWEVER...ALREADY MRGL BUOYANCY -- E.G.
   MUCAPES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AOB 500 J/KG MOST AREAS WITH WEAK
   CAPE DENSITY -- MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE AND
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN FACE OF STG SHEARING EFFECTS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
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