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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 22, 2008
Updated: Sat Nov 22 08:47:07 UTC 2008
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Tue, Nov 25, 2008 - Wed, Nov 26, 2008 |
D7 | Fri, Nov 28, 2008 - Sat, Nov 29, 2008 |
| D5 | Wed, Nov 26, 2008 - Thu, Nov 27, 2008 |
D8 | Sat, Nov 29, 2008 - Sun, Nov 30, 2008 |
| D6 | Thu, Nov 27, 2008 - Fri, Nov 28, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220846
SPC AC 220846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL TUE NOV 25TH AND WED NOV 26TH
AS MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF
A DEEP LOW MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING
MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THEREAFTER...THE PAST SEVERAL ECMWF AND MREF RUNS HAVE BEEN IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS NOV 27/28. THE 00Z MREF
CONTINUES THAT SAME TREND...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER FROM
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS AND MREF. ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A LOWER
THREAT FOR SEVERE...MREF AND PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS TX DAY 6 AND/OR 7 AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER... UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LOCATION/SPEED OF UPPER TROUGH AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER AREA ATTM.
..IMY.. 11/22/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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